One can never dismiss nuclear threats as a bluff. Especially when you deal with unpredictable leaders like Putin who has isolated himself from the outside world and has decided to break up the world order as we know it. We must take such threats seriously. There are reasons that indicate Putin’s nuclear threats amount to a bluff.
First, Putin’s interest per se is not in using nuclear weapons. His intention is to disrupt the world order and be accepted as a serious player. The ultimate goal is to deter the West from helping Ukraine to win this war. The real weapon is a threat that inspires fear in the West. This weapon would be lost if the nuclear weapon was actually used.
Second, Putin’s personal interests. Putin knows that his decision to use nuclear may well trigger his own demise – either through external action or by an internal coup.
Third, international opinion – Russia will lose support on international arena if it uses nuclear weapons.
Fourth, intelligence – NATO has more intelligence about Russian nuclear weapons, their location, status, and readiness to use than Russia would like to accept.
What is odd is that Ukrainians who theoretically have to fear most of nuclear escalation are not afraid of provoking Putin anymore. At the same time, USA and Germany appear to be paralyzed by fear of removing military constraints on Ukraine.
Above all it is naïve to think that peace can be achieved through this half-hearted approach steeped in fear. For real peace to be achieved the West must neutralize the fear – the strongest enemy weapon so far.